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History Favors Obama in New Jersey

State has given its electoral votes to a Democrat in the last five elections.

 

If history is any indication, Barack Obama should have no problem winning New Jersey's 14 electoral votes in his quest for re-election on Tuesday. 

In the past four presidential elections, the Republican candidate has never been within 240,000 votes, and only once did a candidate get within 500,000 of his Democratic opponent.  

A look at statistics kept by the state shows that in the last four elections, incumbent president George W. Bush was the closest at picking up the NJ's nod, still losing to John Kerry by more than 240,000 votes.

The biggest winner among the Democratic candidates in that span was incumbent Barack Obama, who won the state by more than 600,000 votes in 2008.

The closest vote in 20 years came in 1992, when Bill Clinton won his first of two terms as president, defeating George H. Bush by only 79,341 votes.

The numbers show one of the reasons why the national media hasn't used the term "swing state" to describe the race in the Garden State for quite some time. It also shows that the winner hasn't so much coincided with the national victor, so much as who was on the Democratic ticket in the past 20 years.

The last time a Republican won the state was in 1988, when the elder Bush defeated Michael Dukakis by more than 400,000 votes in one of the more lopsided national races in history. Bush won 426 electoral votes to Dukakis' 111.

That was the last of a long line of Republican wins in New Jersey. Before 1992, the last time a Democrat won the state's electoral votes was 1964 when it went for Lyndon B. Johnson.

Once that string of six straight elections was broken, though, the state hasn't voted for a Republican since. The following breakdown of the past 20 years of New Jersey presidential voting gives a look at how residents have cast their ballots.

NJ Presidential Voting History

Year Democratic Votes Republican Votes Difference NJ Winner Same as National Winner?
2008 2,215,422 1,613,207 602,215 Yes
2004 1,911,430 1,670,003 241,427 No
2000 1,788,850 1,284,173 504,677 No
1996 1,652,329 1,103,078 549,251 Yes
1992 1,436,206 1,356,865 79,341 Yes

When it comes to the statistics on voter turnout in New Jersey, one might expect the number 70 to come up on Tuesday. 

In the past two elections, 73 percent of the state's registered voters cast ballots. In 2000, the first election listed on the state's website with such numbers, 69 percent of registered voters came out to make their voices heard. 

If you're looking for the county that may turn out the greatest percentage of its registered voters, Hunterdon and Somerset County are the favorites. Hunterdon had the greatest percentage in 2008 and tied with Somerset in 2004. Somerset held the title alone in 2000. 

When it comes to a low turnout, Hudson County has recently come in with the smallest numbers. The county's percentage of turnout was the least in 2008 and 2004. In 2000, it was Essex County who came in with a state-low 61 percent of its registered voters.

Here is a look at the last three elections when it comes to voter turnout. 

Presidential Voter Turnout

Year Total Registered Voters Total Ballots Cast Percent Cast County With Greatest Percentage County With Least Percentage
2008 5,378,792 3,910,220 73 Hunterdon (81) Hudson (61)
2004 5,009,140 3,638,153 73 Hunterdon, Somerset (82) Hudson (63)
2000 4,699,026 3,219,650 69 Somerset (81) Essex (61)

Tuesday will write a new chapter in Garden State election history. Will recent history repeat itself? New Jersey voters will decide in a matter of hours.

Related Topics: Elections, Voting, and election 2012

Caroline Hawkins

12:25 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Get out there and take a look around and see what Obama has done for you? Nothing that is the answer. Nothing. He came looked around our state said what he was going to do and went back to D.C. I am disabled and I could have done that, I wish that everyone was back online with lights, food and all you need to get your life back.God bless all of you. God showed us by this storms that he is alive and well. No matter how hard they are trying to push him out he shows you he is still here. Now another storm coming. That is to make you remember he is here.here

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Karen

5:23 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

I agree with you. I'm proud to say that I didn't vote for him the frist time. I don't see how anyone can vote for him to get in for a 2nd term. Hope N.J. voters smarten up this year.

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pd

8:24 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

What do you want him to do, stick around and shovel sand? The fact that I still have a job and don't have to wait in a bread line or eat shoe leather is enough for me to know who to vote for. Can't say so much for the way that we were headed after the last guy got done gutting our economy.

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zelda

1:37 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

zelda
Are you kidding? God is showing us the "he" is here by sending two storms. What kind of god do you believe in? and just what is "he" trying to say?

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NYCGirlinWestfield

1:56 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

@Caroline and Zelda: My bible says that it's the devil that comes to steal, kill and destroy. God does not send storms--and please read your bible thoroughly and prayerfully and do not reference Noah's Ark. Man needs to take accountability for it's own actions and how he continually treats, disrespects and disregards mother earth.

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NJarhead

2:01 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Wait, but didn't God send death to Egypt and turn the Nile to blood?

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sunny

2:11 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Nut job!!!! There is no God or there be no storms

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NJarhead

2:34 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

How do you know there is no God?

ressummit

1:22 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Is it possible New Jersey voters could do the right thing in year 24? Probably not - second to California in liberal dogma - right vote will never happen. Shame on New Jerseyans.

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sunny

2:13 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

So u want Crazy Mitten who has no clue and his Stepford Wife!!!! LOL

mork

2:02 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

so he forgot his wand? His magician's hat? What did you expect... he got a democratic congress? At least he didn't send "heckofajob Brownie!"

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Max

4:43 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

I have never lived in a swing state, I have never lived in an early primary state. I have never seen or heard an advertisement for a Presidential candidate.

Our opinion, our wants, our desires, our needs, and our vote are meaningless to Presidential candidates and meaningless to the President, whoever it may be.

Where are the third- (and fourth- and fifth- and sixth-) party candidates?

The Electoral College makes a farce of democracy.

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Keeping whats mine

5:55 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Go in and vote " R " all the way. Gotta take it back. Or else i fear

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Uncle Moe

6:09 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Romney is a fraud and liar just as bad as Obama! Flip flops on everything. Gary Johnson, Libertarian (and former republican gov.) is the solution!

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pd

8:24 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Back to what? The dark ages?

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Lisa

1:44 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

How incredibly rude of you to tell people how to vote.

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NJarhead

1:46 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

You're exactly right Lisa! Tomorrow, you should vote for who ever you want!!!

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Bradberry

2:09 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

If a one liner on the internet sways you to vote for someone? come on Lisa, rude? you are dopey

Max R

7:18 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

NJ will be much closer than 2008. I am hoping against hope that Mitt can carry NJ (which would be SPECTACULAR)

Either way he wins the Presidency handily. Thank goodness, because this current President is an utter failure.

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sunny

2:17 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

You much be rich! Cause that is all Mitt and his Stepford Wife care about!! Cant wait to live in the Regan years again where nothing but the rich matter.

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NJarhead

2:33 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

I'm not rich. Never was, and I don't recall the Regan years the way you do. What have the rich actually done to you and why is it fair for them the "give just a little bit more (as Obama likes to say)?" Just because they have it? That doesn't sound fair or constitutional to me.

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pd

2:42 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Explain to me why I should pay nearly 40% of my income in taxes while someone much more fortunate should only have to pay <15%.

I'm not convinced that Romney has paid any income taxes in the last decade. His failure to release his tax returns for the last decade is extremely suspect to me.

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NJarhead

2:57 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

If you're paying 40% in income taxes then it's because you're probably not too intelligent.

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pd

3:00 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Way to avoid the actual content of my comment. Maybe if I had his money, I could afford advisers to help me find tax shelters and loopholes.

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NJarhead

3:07 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

You're right. I should have taken your BS claim and comparison (absent of any supportive information) at face value. Shame on me. You pay 40% because God hates you. Better?

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tcawley

3:19 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Not sure where you are getting those numbers, pd. The federal income tax is not 15% for wealthy Americans - its about 35%. You may be thinking of capital gains tax. Not the same.

Don Lee

8:20 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

See 2016...Obama Muslim not raised as Us citizen...weakens us.We r republic...electoral college guarantees states rights...bring power back home

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Geri Ann Bujnowski

8:32 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Forget the polls. If we didn't have a corrupt media that turned a blind eye to what is going on the world, and instead asked the hard questions of the president you would see how bad his polices really are for the country. Vote republican straight Down the line.

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PC

8:40 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

TO pd; You are obviously closed minded,narcistic person. It's not all about YOU. It's WE THE PEOPLE. I am a 100% Disabled Vet from Vietnam era. I did not fight and get wounded for socialism.
PC

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pd

8:58 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Will you or anyone you know be accepting assistance from that socialist program known as FEMA?

pd

8:55 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

No. I guess you fought for a government that gives your money away to corporations and defense contractors.

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NJarhead

9:01 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Or sells our debt to China?

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Hightstown Homeowner

9:19 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

NJ Jarhead - bet you kept your piehole shut when George W. squandered that 5.6 trillion dollar surplus and ran the debt over 10 trillion.

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NJarhead

9:27 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

My "piehole." That's cute. GWB had to respond to an attack on American soil because the previous administration did nothing to prevent it in 8 years. Maybe if Clinton had actually responded to the Cole attack or those on our embassy's, we'd have never gone to war and would still have that surplus. What was your piehole spewing when the planes crashed into the world trade center, or the Pentagon?

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Hightstown Homeowner

9:34 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Yes, Clinton ignored the memo 'Bin Laden determined to strike US' Oh wait, that was Bush. Maybe if Reagan hadn't ignored the attack on the Bierut embassy when 63 people were killed, terrorists wouldn't think it was so easy to attack us. Oh and love the war he started in Iraq for no reason other than to avenge his daddy. The tax cuts he pushed through were the ones that wiped out our surplus so if tax cuts were such a great idea and create jobs we wouldn't be in the mess we are now. Oh except tax cuts don't create jobs. So back to where we started.

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NJarhead

9:42 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Bush didn't ignore anything. He wasn't told of anything. And what does Reagan have to do with Clinton??? Facts are these: We were attacked at two embassy's and one US Naval vessel and the response was nill. Clinton was also responsible for the reduction in CIA personal intelligence which would have given us more vital information prior to all of these attacks on us. Wait, weren't you ignoramuses originally claiming that we invaded Iraq for oil??? What ever happened to that theory? We ousted a dictator responsible for genocide and while he didn't have WMD's, he DID maintain the means to build them in a heartbeat. He couldn't allow his biggest enemy (Iran) believe he was vulnerable. So in four years, what has Obama actually done...with the exception of devaluing the Nobel Peace Prize?

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Hightstown Homeowner

10:35 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

You keep yammering about Clinton so it's only fair to throw in that knucklehead Reagan. (admit that you wanted Obama to invade Libya over Benghazi, forgetting that Reagan did nothing in Beirut).

Bush was told of the threat Bin Laden posed. To deny that is to deny what everyone knows is a fact - both Republican and Democrat. It was in his August 6th Presidential Daily Briefing. I can supply a link to the transcript of it if that would be helpful.

CIA resources were cut in FY 1992 under Bush. They continued to go down again for a few years and then saw the largest increase in 15 years in FY 1999, under Clinton.

We invaded Iraq for oil the first go around. The second one was that thinly veiled "WMD's" disaster that was really revenge for daddy.

What has Obama done? I'll bite even though you won't agree with any of them Let's review jsut a few: Recapitalized the banks. Saved the US auto industry. Eliminated Bin Laden. Eliminated Qadaffi. Ended the war in Iraq. Increased funding for veterans healthcare and education. Tightened sanctions on Iran. Increased deportations of illegal immigrants.

If you are going to respond again try using facts or things with sources.

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NJarhead

10:45 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Show me links to your claims. I brought up Clinton because he had a direct impact to what followed (9/11, surplus dimished due to war, etc). Second, we never invaded Iraq in 1991. Care to try again? I notice you circumvented the issue of Clinton's non-action in our defense. I'm pretty sure you can get on Netflix and see the interviews with CIA operatives at the time who illustrated the consequences for Clinton's innaction. Obama got Bin Laden. That's rich. Also, the timetable for the exit from Iraq was signed by Bush before he left office. http://mediamatters.org/research/2010/06/27/memo-to-media-bush-set-a-timetable-for-withdraw/166835

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Hightstown Homeowner

11:09 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

So the one link you post is to show that Bush set the timetable in Iraq. Is that your attempt to refute Obama's accomplishments? I'll assume so since you've posted nothing to support any of your own claims. Bush set the timetable but it would seem, based on your own link, that certain benchmarks had to be met in order for that timetable to be adhered to. So thank you for proving my point on Obama's accomplishment of getting us out of Iraq successfully. As to the things I've stated, here are my sources:
On the PDB:
http://articles.cnn.com/2004-04-10/politics/august6.memo_1_bin-conduct-terrorist-attacks-abu-zubaydah?_s=PM:ALLPOLITICS

On Obama's accomplishments - includes additional sources
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/march_april_2012/features/obamas_top_50_accomplishments035755.php?page=1
http://pleasecutthecrap.typepad.com/main/what-has-obama-done-since-january-20-2009.html
http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=81904

So Operation Desert Storm didn't happen? Or we didn't technically invade Iraq, we were in Kuwait and ended up in Iraq? What's your point here?

Where did you mention Clinton's inaction? You said he cut resources. Those cuts started under Bush 1, continued under Clinton and then were reversed under Clinton. See: http://blog.stephenleary.com/2008/09/intelligence-budgets-during-clinton.html

How about you address Bush ignoring his daily briefing? Or the squandered surplus.

Oh and Obama wasn't responsible for getting Bin Laden?

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NJarhead

11:13 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

I'm not continuing this conversation.

Lori Hauck

9:03 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

..may God grant us TO BE LEAD BY MITT ROMNEY A TRUE AMERICAN WHO WAS BORN HERE AND IS A US CITIZEN.
BTW ONE WHO DOES NOT NEED TO COMMIT VOTER FRAUD...I HOPE THAT THE GOOD LORD HEARS US WHEN THIS BALLOT IS DONE AND OVER. WE NEED TO BE TAKEN AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION THAT OBAMA HAS LEAD US TO. Some of us have jobs ad TG for that not Obama. Because there are far too many on welfare and have no jobs. If he gets re-elected may god help is all. I pray for a President Mitt Romney, and so does more then most of the nation. We all need to be taken out of the ole we are in...and it was Obama's place to do what he did by coming to NJ, AND IF ANY OF YOU WATCHED Governor Christy he said he does not endorse Obama and will be voting to Mitt Romney..darn media hype made people think differently due to Christy's thanking the president after the visit...people open your eyes! And listen to the truth...FOX FIVE IS THE ONLY INTELLIGENT AND TRUTHFUL NEWS STATION THAT DOESN'T USE PROPAGANDA ....MAY GOD BLESS US ALL...

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Manalapan Resident

9:21 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

if this country allows romney to be president, we might as well pack it in. unless you are in the 1%, he will destroy you to take care of his buddies. you are an idiot to think otherwise. he does not care about the 99% and since the hurricane, most of us will be in the 47% who he has already stated that he does not care about and will not do anything for. GET A CLUE YOU IDIOT!

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Max R

9:48 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Manalapan, why do you need to call us idiots? Mitt is campaigning TODAY in two urban areas because he does care about everyone and every voter. Barrack is playing basketball today (surprise!) You must be so proud of your point guard President. His failure lackey's even let him win at THAT!

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Joiseymom

9:55 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Wow, how ignorant are you?? First of all G-d has nothing to do with the election or the running of the USA. Secondly, President Obama is a Christian, and was born in the USA, in the state of Hawaii. He was raised by his white christian mother and his white christian mid west grand parents. His father who was not a citizen and was a muslim, had nothing to do with him the majority of his lifetime. Obama didn't lead us into a depression, that was good old GW Bush! Did you forgot the years 2000-2008? Did you forget the war he got us into because of the nukes that didn't exsist? Did you forget the surplus that Clinton left the USA with in 2000, and that Bush threw away? DId you forget the housing market that tanked under Bush? Did you forget the debt Bush created? Did you forget the banks and auto companies going bankrupt during the Bush years??

Obama was handed a disgusting Bush mess, and he did the best he could to clean it up. DId he do a perfect job? No, he didn't but then again, no one could have, ti was an impossible situation, and he did the best he could, especially with the Republican Congress fighting him every step of the way.

Should I get into civil rights?? As a women I plan on voting for the person that is going to protect the rights of women. No gov't is going to tell me what to do with my body. I am also voting for the person that sees the Gay community as human beings entitled to the joys of legal marriage!

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NJarhead

9:58 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

JoiseyMom, the irony concerning ignorance in your post is hysterical.

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Max R

10:08 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Joiseymom, are you talking to me?

Three words "Community Redevelopment Act." Look it up. Pure liberal crap that tanked the economy, look it up and educate yourself. Gee, let's lower banking standards that have been established since BANKING WAS CREATED and force banks to lend to people who can't pay them back. Then le'ts de-regulate Wall St (Clinton signing the law to repeal Glass Steagall which was created after the Great Depression to regulate banks) so that they can prepackage all this stuff and make money for themselves and the greedy politicians FROM BOTH PARTIES.

Joiseymom, please educate yourself, then go out and vote.

Oh, and as for the wars, the Muslim terrorits flew two planes into the WTC and killed 5 of my personal friends. They also flew a plane into the pentagon, and tried to fly one plane into the White House. And Congress then authorized war by both the House and the Senate.

Joiseymom, read a book please, especially before calling OTHER people ignorant.

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Diogenes

12:27 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Fox media consists primarily of professional right-wing propagandists, as Bill O'Reilly admitted during an interview some years ago. There "programs" are endlessly repetitive in criticizing any and all democratic officials, policies, and candidates. They can be amusing if one can put up with their unabashed bias.

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sunny

2:22 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Hate to say it folks but neither man can fix this mess that your buddy Bush and lets face it really Chaney made cuz Bush did not have enough brains in his head to make this mess. He just wanted to play President and so does this joker Mitt!

Max R

9:05 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

PC, may God bless you and I thank you for your service to our country.

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terri

9:26 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Just remember that rich guy romney wanted to get rid of fema and your medicare

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Max R

9:50 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

FEMA is a joke. They are funded only with OUR TAX MONEY and all they can do is cut checks (WITH OUR MONEY, not theirs)

WHERE IS THE GASOLINE?
WHERE IS THE WATER?
WHERE IS THE FOOD?
WHERE IS THE POWER?

FEMA is a joke, like almost every other Federal "program" like "Education" "Environmental Protection" and "Obamacare"

All failures. In one day we will TRULY be able to look forward and awaken from this Obama Nightmare.

JOANN FERGUSON

9:30 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

you go ahead , you either misinformed or just have not been listening. Mitt Romney gets in you thinks thinks are bad now ,just wait ...your sons or grandsons are going to war , you, your daughter , or granddaughter has women will loose the right to choose. People will be coming to your house begging for food or to clean your yard to feed their family. Mitt Romney is not in the business of giving jobs ,he devours them for prophet.This your last chance to help turn this economy around, last chance to allow President Obama to clean up the mess he inherited, I believe he has done a darn good job and deserves the right to finish what he has tried to do. You folks out there , please don't believe all that you hear ,but look around and see.. Mitt Romney is not that right man for this job . If anything its too that bad that the republicans did not have a better choice in candidates to run for them....Sorry he has not shown me that he can do the job , only what kind of job he will do..BEWARE!

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Don Lee

1:33 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

You really are misinformed. The federal govt should NOT be paying for abortions or birth control with taxpayer monies---women have always had the right to choose and have chosen---DO NOT NEED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT involved in this, either for or against. This country needs a business man to put things on right track so all can have a prosperous life. Obama has another agenda--he was not raised as an American so has no special feelings for this country.

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pd

2:20 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Don Lee, Your statement is exactly why I fear for the future of this country. This country had a businessman in charge, and he flushed it down the toilet. His Name was George W bush.

And Women HAVE NOT always had the right to use birth control and abortions. Abortions were not legalized in this country until 1973. And Married couples were not allowed, by law, to use birth control until 1965. single women were not permitted by law to use birth control until 1972.

The ignorance of people like you is what I fear the most.

Yelshir Derchanson

9:49 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Regrettably,all too often, Republicans sound overtly hostile. I can understand being "angry" over several current issues, but that tantrum -like -fist -pounding -Jesus high jacking -extremist -mentality of the Tea Partiers seems to have permeated what used to be a sensible party.
And don't waste time with more fist pounding replying that you " have a right to be hostile" with the current administration. You know what? You muddy the waters with your seething. It's not productive;it's just off putting.
Clean up the rhetoric, take a chill pill, learn about the details of the issues you purport to know, and spend some time crafting your responses to appear more informed, rather than just obsessed.

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NJarhead

9:53 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

How many republicans to you think were causing problems at all the "occupy" events?

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Max R

9:54 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Yelshir, see Manalapan Resident, PD, and Hightstown Homeowner above for hostility. I think you are mis-informed about where the hostility comes from.

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Shannon Kelly

12:42 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Hostility? Yes hostility! Wow - this country has certainly changed - and not for the better. We still have the best country in the world let's not ruin it. Thank God we have the freedom to voice an opinion without being shot. To resort to calling people idiots (and worse) because they don't agree with you is ridiculous and makes you no better than any other dictator who had to have ultimate control...

Max R

9:52 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Oh, and where are all the Obama lawn signs? You couldn't go one block in Lawrenceville in 2008 without seeing one? Aren't all you Obama supporters proud to be supporting him? Where are all your signs?

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David Fischer

10:06 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Brick Township residents... If you do not like politics interfering with your school-system and Board of Education, vote for David Fischer. I took not political donations from anyone so I owe no political favors!

http://brick.patch.com/articles/boe-candidate-profile-david-fischer-1fb87a34

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DennyD

10:16 am on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

The utter hatred spewed on this menial site shows just how devided we are: E Pluribus Unum? Not anymore. We do not have to worry about a foreign power taking us over. Screw the money. They'll just supply the guns and we will kill one another off.

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ALZ

12:57 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

"They'll just supply the guns and we will kill one another off." Who are they???

Project Bluebeam

3:07 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

"If I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition.”

-Barack Hussein Obama, the Today show (2/1/09)

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terri

5:06 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

He would have been able to do more if the gop were more bipartisan

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b paterson

5:36 pm on Tuesday, November 6, 2012

the federal govt would would have been able to do more if obama worked with the GOP, obama was too partisan

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